Baseball Prospectus 2008: The Essential Guide to the 2008 Baseball Season
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Book Summary Information
Editor: Steven GoldmanEditor: Christina Kahrl
Edition: Mass Market Paperback
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2008-02-25
ISBN: 0452289033
Number of pages: 624
Publisher: Plume
Book Reviews of Baseball Prospectus 2008: The Essential Guide to the 2008 Baseball Season
Book Review: Good start to the 2008 baseball season!
Summary: 5 Stars
The new baseball season will soon be upon us, with hope breaking out all over. Those of us who are Chicago White Sox fan see our team starting off even with every other time and hope abounding. What will the season hold? Only 162 games will tell us.
This book is one of those compendia that come out each year, providing information on major league baseball players. This has a sabermetric element to it, so those who love statistics will enjoy this work.
There are some nice features, including a listing of the top 100 prospects this season, how base running turns into runs, projected leaders in a variety of categories (e.g., they project Ryan Howard to lead in home runs with 44, Albert Pujols to lead in batting average with .327, Jose Reyes to lead in stolen bases with 60, etc.).
Those projections are based on a technique called PECOTA, in which players are equated with many other players--past and present--with similar characteristics. Then, that data base is used to project how well the particular contemporary player is likely to do this year. As an example, let's take a look at one team, the White Sox. Many of the Sox' key players are aging, and projections suggest declining performance among such stalwarts as Jim Thome and A. J. Pierzynski. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, on the other hand, are projected to perform in similar fashion to 2007. By the way, one of the nice features is that each player is compared to those whose career statistics define PECOTA. For instance, comparables to Joe Crede include Dave Roberts, Kevin Orie, Tim Wallach, and Tim Hulett. Just looking at comparables is fun! Jermaine Dye is equated with Dave Henderson, Joe Adcock, Jose Canseco, and Juan Gonzalez. Pretty good company (at least for statistics). Paul Konerko is compared with Kevin Millar, Gil Hodges, Jeff Conine, and Eric Karros. The mainstay of the pitching staff, Mark Buehrle, is linked to Ken Holtzman (the old Cubbie!), Greg Swindell, Jim Abbott, and Curt Simmons.
Enough comparisons. Another statistic is called VORP, value over replacement player. This statistic is created by assuming that a particular player would be removed from the lineup and replaced by someone of proven quality (the details are too lengthy to be presented in a line or two). The resulting figures are then used to estimate players who will rise and who will decline this coming year. White Sox fans might want to shiver a bit. Mark Buehrle is one of the projected 15 players who will decline the most.
A couple other figures to illustrate what the book provides. Jim Thome is expected to see his home run total decline from 35 to 29 and his RBIs from 96 to 79. If you're curious, by the way, his comparator players include Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey, Darrell Evans, and Cliff Johnson--some pretty good company!
Anyhow, this is a book that will be a lot of fun for baseball fans. It's a good way to start preparing for the new baseball season!
Summary of Baseball Prospectus 2008: The Essential Guide to the 2008 Baseball Season
The New York Times bestselling guide to major league baseball returns for the 2008 seasonFor over a decade, Baseball Prospectus has been the ultimate guide to the game for fantasy players, professionals, and casual fans alike. Baseball Prospectus 2008 continues that tradition, bringing together the top young baseball writers and analysts in the business to provide a definitive look at the season to come. Featuring groundbreaking essays on the performance of each of the thirty teams and an in-depth look at every major league player and all the top prospects, Baseball Prospectus 2008 offers the cutting-edge analysis that has inspired nearly every major league team to seek the advice of current or former Prospectus writers. Also included are projections of player stats for next year, as determined by the groundbreaking PECOTA system, which Sports Illustrated has called ?perhaps the game?s most accurate projection model.? The most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind, Baseball Prospectus 2008 is as essential to the baseball-watching experience as hot dogs and cold beer.
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