Beating the Business Cycle
by Anirvan Banerji, Lakshman Achuthan
Our Price: $135.00
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Buy Used: from $9.17 (click here)
Category: Book
See more book details and other editions
Book Summary Information
Author: Anirvan Banerji, Lakshman AchuthanEdition: Hardcover
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2004-05-18
ISBN: 0385509537
Number of pages: 208
Publisher: Crown Business
Book Reviews of Beating the Business Cycle
Book Review: What Forbes has to say
Summary: 4 Stars
Predicting the course of the economy is a national sport and usually a most imperfect one, when practiced by so-called stock market experts of every persuasion--amateur economists, politicians and especially cable television pundits. Sometimes, though, there are thoughtful professional observers who scientifically collect all the facts available and then some --to make as informed a prognosis as possible.
Such is the case of Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, managing directors at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). These serious students' economic statistics inform their extraordinarily useful handbook on how to measure and forecast turning points in the US economy. Beating the Business Cycle (Currency, $24.95) is as clear and concise as to be useful to investors or businessmen eager to get behind the piecemeal instant commentaries in the papers or on television.
ECRI employs about 100 objective indexes, such as IT spending, inventories and housing starts, to tell the world that the economy will turn good or bad before the economy actually does take a turn for the better or the worse. This work comes from a great tradition--former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns' classic 1938 study Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals. Following in Burns' steps was economist Geoffrey Moore, who developed data in order to understand the key drivers of business cycles. His National Bureau of Economic Research at Columbia University earned respect for reliable and accurate indicators of the economy's path.
Achuthan and Banerji have taken that concept of measurement much further. As they write, simple models "oversimplify the real world and fail to capture the complexity that produces economic fluctuations."
So the authors have sought to capture the economy's complexity by combining statistics on many indexes--construction, manufacturing, services, exports, trade balance, imports and foreign trade. Their primary leading indicators are sensitive commodity prices, average manufacturing workweek, commercial and industrial building contracts, new incorporations, new orders, housing starts, stock price indexes and business failure liabilities. In other words you have to add together a mix of gritty facts and numbers to develop a solid prediction.
This approach works like a charm sometimes. In 1990, ECRI's Leading Employment Index forecast a sharp recessionary rise in the jobless rate five months before the 1990-91 recession hit--a solid lead time for bond buyers to increase their positions in fixed-income securities and for equity investors to reduce their holdings in common stocks. Another ECRI index, the Leading Services Index, predicted the recovery in 1991 even though the jobless figures kept rising. "Those who prepared for the upturn enjoyed a significant competitive advantage," the authors assert.
In the summer of 2000 "there was a pervasive downturn in all twelve of our leading indexes" that measured the strength of the U.S. economy. This confluence of signals warned that a recession was coming, one that began long before the terrorist strike of Sept. 11, 2001. The dream that the new economy of technological innovation would even out the economy was not to be. As the authors write conclusively; "It is impossible to remove the cycle from a free-market economy. But by understanding the nature of business cycles and employing a cyclical view in your decision making you can protect yourself from falling prey to prevailing wisdom the next time the cycle turns."
Beating the Business Cycle is about as fine a primer on how to read the economy as you can find in a short, punchy book that's easy to follow.
-Review by Robert Lenzner, national editor
Forbes, October 2004
Summary of Beating the Business Cycle
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?The answer is, you can?t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI?s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the ?secret weapon? of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels?managers, small business owners, and individuals?can see into the economy?s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times?even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Economics Books
Book Subjects
- Arts & Photography
- Biographies & Memoirs
- Business & Investing
- Children's Books
- Comics & Graphic Novels
- Computers & Internet
- Cooking, Food & Wine
- Entertainment
- Gay & Lesbian
- Health, Mind & Body
- History
- Home & Garden
- Horror
- Law
- Literature & Fiction
- Mystery & Thrillers
- Nonfiction
- Outdoors & Nature
- Parenting & Families
- Professional & Technical
- Reference
- Religion & Spirituality
- Romance
- Science
- Science Fiction & Fantasy
- Sports
- Teens
- Travel
Most talked about in Economics Books
The Day Wall Street Exploded: A Story of America in Its First Age of Terrorby Beverly Gage
Oxford University Press, USA; Published: 2009-01-28; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $5.33
Price in other shops:
Coal: A Human Historyby Barbara Freese
Penguin (Non-Classics); Published: 2004-01-27; Paperback; Book
Best price: $6.99
Price in other shops:
Econometric Models and Economic Forecastsby Robert Pindyck, Daniel Rubinfeld, Robert S. Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld
McGraw-Hill/Irwin; Published: 1997-07-01; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $88.50
Elements of Dynamic Optimizationby Alpha C. Chiang
Mcgraw-Hill College; Published: 1992-01; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $375.84
Macroeconomicsby Campbell McConnell, Stanley Brue
McGraw-Hill/Irwin; Published: 2006-10-27; Paperback; Book
Best price: $30.00
Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Power (P.S.)by John Steele Gordon
Harper Perennial; Published: 2005-10-25; Paperback; Book
Best price: $8.56
Price in other shops:
A Term at the Fed: An Insider's Viewby Laurence H. Meyer
HarperBusiness; Published: 2006-01-03; Paperback; Book
Best price: $3.74
Price in other shops:
Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (Harper Business Essentials)by Jim Collins, Jerry I. Porras
HarperBusiness; Published: 2002-08; Paperback; Book
Best price: $5.81
Price in other shops:
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisionsby Dan Ariely
Harper; Published: 2009-06; Paperback; Book
Best price: $9.41
Price in other shops:
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000by Paul Kennedy
Harper Collins Publishers; Published: 1989-03-16; Paperback; Book
Best price: $18.65
Similar Books and other products
The Complete TurtleTrader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionairesby Michael W. Covel
HarperBusiness; Published: 2009-02-24; Paperback; Book
Best price: $9.55
Price in other shops:
Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Financeby Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm
Penguin Press HC, The; Published: 2010-05-11; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $5.39
Price in other shops:
The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor (Columbia Business School Publishing)by Howard Marks
Columbia University Press; Published: 2011-05-01; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $16.60
Price in other shops:
The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Moneyby J. Anthony Boeckh
Wiley; Published: 2010-05-03; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $13.66
Price in other shops:
Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everythingby John Mauldin, Jonathan Tepper
Wiley; Published: 2011-03-08; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $14.39
Price in other shops:
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japans Great Recessionby Richard C. Koo
Wiley; Published: 2009-08-17; Paperback; Book
Best price: $15.99
Price in other shops:
Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)by Gil Morales, Chris Kacher
Wiley; Published: 2010-08-23; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $32.64
Price in other shops:
Probable Outcomesby Ed Easterling
Cypress House; Published: 2011-01-14; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $24.00
Price in other shops:
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Follyby Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff
Princeton University Press; Published: 2009-09-11; Hardcover; Book
Best price: $18.20
Price in other shops:
The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Editionby Bernard Baumohl
Pearson Prentice Hall; Published: 2007-08-03; Paperback; Book
Best price: $12.97
Price in other shops: