Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
by John Downes, Peter D. Schiff
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Book Summary Information
Author: John Downes, Peter D. SchiffEdition: Hardcover
Audio: English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2007-02-26
ISBN: 0470043601
Number of pages: 288
Publisher: Wiley
Book Reviews of Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
Book Review: Beware of Donkey's Ears.
Summary: 3 Stars
This book made a great read back in 2007, and naturally, became famous in an obvious ominous trend culminating the end of Bush catastrophic presidency.
However, it is so profoundly geared to an American reader, who is largely unaware of the economic situations in Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia and other "greener grass" countries.
Dwarfed by recent American economic problems, the issues of aforementioned economies are not highlighted today as they have been before. But speaking of debt, Europe is in a dangerous position with its socialist system rewarding economic passivity; China is beyond any serious discussion as it will one day implode as Soviet Union, since no totalitarian regime can be fundamentally economically sound; India is a caste society sinking deeper in religious fundamentalism; perhaps Brazil is the best of pack, but it is still a small economy. And Russia is simply not a market system yet. But in the spur of the moment these problems with these societies/economies are rarely mentioned recently as Americans are so preoccupied with their own country's situation, looking for a "new" solution.
Thus I think the book appeals to scared Americans with its dubious call for the above mentioned regimes and gold as safe heavens. One should note that gold actually descended from its height in March 2008, and even at the stock market bottom of March 5 2009 it did not reach its previous year level.
Could it be that this book is just another log thrown into the gold bubble? Why should gold bubble be different from our housing, stock, oil bubble?
And how could investing in Europe with its insolvent debt be better? Needless to say, other countries mentioned are exotic regimes, with most Americans never been there, not lived and having little understanding how much more dangerous and unstable all those economies are, ruled by tyrants or corrupt politicians, regimes with no transparency, with information about anything controlled by local Ministries of Truth.
Using past as a guidance to the future, the safest investment is that relied on law and order, and it could very well be that American corporate bonds or real estate or stocks are the best at this time. As markets change, capital rotates, and there is no safe heaven in anything - one can look at what gold did during Soviets invasion in Afghanistan, and those who bough at $1800 are already waiting almost thirty years to break even.
The secret that the author doesn't reveal is that NOTHING is crash-proof in the first place, and secondly, to benefit from the crash, it has to happen - something that might not come in our lifetimes. And thus investment strategy targeted at benefiting from the crash might not pay off as the crash itself might not come.
Instead, we may have another rebound in America in front of us. In this case, those who got gold may end up losers in the foreseeable future. Severely depressed real estate may attract capital away from gold at these levels, as gold may be considered overbought while real estate oversold. The same goes for American stocks. Gold holders may be left with donkey's ears, Midas touch is a severe blessing. Gold is still a commodity and can drop wildly, as anything else, when no one is expecting Golden Black Swan to arrive.
"Investing is the most difficult thing possible" - Jesse Livermore.
And another universal one:
BUY LOW SELL HIGH.
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Summary of Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
The economic tipping point for the United States is no longer theoretical. It is a reality today. The country has gone from the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor; the value of the dollar is sinking; domestic manufacturing is winding down - and these trends don't seem to be slowing. Peter Schiff casts a sharp, clear-sighted eye on these factors and explains what the possible effects may be and how investors can protect themselves. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the U.S. economy, but also helped his clients reposition their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt, too-little savings, a declining dollar, and lack of domestic manufacturing.Crash-Proof is an informed and informative warning of a looming period marked by sizeable tax hikes, loss of retirement benefits, double digit inflation, even - as happened recently in Argentina - the possible collapse of the middle class. However, Schiff does have a survival plan that can provide the protection that readers will need in the coming years.
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