The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us
by Robyn Meredith
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Book Summary Information
Author: Robyn MeredithEdition: Paperback
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2008-06-17
ISBN: 0393331938
Number of pages: 272
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Product features:
- ISBN13: 9780393331936
- Condition: New
- Notes: BRAND NEW FROM PUBLISHER! 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!
Book Reviews of The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us
Book Review: A good intro, but just an intro
Summary: 3 Stars
The Elephant and the Dragon's first few chapters are a rather excellent quick history of China and India from the immediate aftermath of WWII to their current economic opening and liberalization. The author covers the abject horror of Mao's China and the ghastly effect his Great Leap Forward and Cultural revolution had on Chinese society, as well as the draining bureaucratic Socialism of Gandhi's India, a system that may have possibly worked had all Indian society been able to live up to his admirable morals but which clearly did not work given the reality of human nature. As both societies declined in failure either to the brink of disaster (in India's case) and to the rock bottom depths of it (China) they began to liberalize their economies, albeit slowly and in significantly different manners. China, as a single party dictatorship, was able to essentially impose a relatively conformist and coordinated opening of it's economy to international markets (although I personally don't share the assessment that this is capitalism as the government still has huge control over the direction of the economy massively distorting what would result in a truly free market, owns nearly half the means of production, and exerts a greater portion of control over the distribution of wealth.) It has been able to leverage its national government's cohesion (or at least lack of a need to occasionally submit itself to a referendum of popular consent) to build massive physical infrastructure such as power plants, airports, roads, railways, and seaports and thus enable access by foreign manufacturer's to its huge population of cheap workers and enable the fruits of their labor to quickly reach container ships or cargo aircraft holds bound for the rest of the world. India on the other hand has taken a much more meandering approach, a result of the shifting sands of power inherit in its democratic system. Seemingly unable to upgrade its crumbling infrastructure in the same manner as China, India has instead found itself laying a less costly and quicker to build telecommunications foundation upon which the world can access its relatively large population of cheap but technically educated workers to code programs and answer phones at international call centers.
The author's explanations of how China and India reached their current state is generally quite engaging, and she also keeps the history of Chinese and Indian gains in balance with their continuing problems. It is clear that the Chinese Communist Party (like any political organ) is still more interested in staying in power than anything else. Economic growth has not been pursued necessarily for its own sake or for the good of it's people but for keeping the party in power, and China's cumbersome and incredibly mixed (nearly half government and half private control) economy is fraught with tensions. The stark contrast between the failing government enterprises and the succeeding private ones poses the challenge of how to keep economic growth going (to legitimize the otherwise arbitrary and unchecked power the CCP has over the lives of its people) while avoiding massive layoffs in the government enterprises which could lead to dreaded social unrest. (In spite of the massive state control since 1949 in China, the memory of a balkanized country either torn apart by feuding warlords or dominated by multiple foreigners each with their own cleaved off sphere of influence is fresh in the minds of their leaders.) Similarly growing disparities between the economic vitality of the coastal cities and the rural interior present another possible fissure point which the CCP is trying to carefully ameliorate with wealth transfers to the interior and expensive infrastructure investments there which have come at the cost of more free wielding growth elsewhere and have not necessarily proven effective yet. China will be severely tested should its recent economic growth slow to recession, or perhaps even decline temporarily in the throes of an otherwise normal business cycle. The fear is either massive social unrest, or a populist invasion of Taiwan to distract attention from economic woes at home. Last, its one child policy and shrinking youth population is bound to put huge strain on its welfare system in the coming decades and it is unclear how China will cope with that pressure.
India's political situation as a relatively developed democracy is perhaps less vulnerable to the potential of catastrophic collapse, but it has its own share of problems. These include the same growing disparity between urban and rural incomes, a still hideous public infrastructure which prevents the growth of more numerous manufacturing jobs (as opposed to jobs for highly educated computer programmers in a society with a large fraction of illiterate people) and a traditionally anti-business streak in its population and government that casts a significant shadow of possibility that its recent strides can be quickly undone.
The author also does an admirable job of explaining the plausible consequences the rise of these two countries has had and will have on the west in general and America more specifically. Essentially in a gloablizing economy with nearly a billion new cheap workers supply of labor is expanding at a quicker rate (temporarily, but for how long?) than their contribution to global demand. The worst case scenario is a massive reduction in living standards in the west for people employed in easily exportable jobs, such as a large number of manufacturing jobs as well as a good number of services that can be delivered via telecom, from financial services to certain rote medical procedures like X-ray analyses. There is a simple and convincing case that due to the sheer size of India and China combined their emergence on the global market will be the largest economic shock/change the west has ever had to adapt to, and as with all change there will be some pain. The question will be how much, for how long, and how to best manage it. (Although ideally in a rich, well capitalized country like America work should shift from the lower paying manufacturing jobs to higher yield work that our level of capital intensity allows, such as airliner construction, biotech, etc. But these jobs also generally require a highly trained and educated workforce which is seemingly at odds with recent educational and societal trends in America.)
However the book is really a simple introduction and that's it. If you've already read anything on modern India or China, or even something like "The World is Flat," there won't be too much new you will learn here. The author doesn't go into much depth, and after about the first half of the book it started to sound like she was rehashing a relatively shallow pool of references. Although only a 200 page book it actually became tedious in the end, and there was a large amount of anecdotal data thrown in that really added next to little to the argument or conclusions of the book and just sounded like padding. The author also makes a number of strange and relatively non-sequitur statements throughout, more so near the end, such as out of place attacks against both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, or her wish that China had fueled or will fuel its cars with ethanol despite its abject failure here in America and her explanation of chronic food shortages in China due to lack of arable land and frequent droughts.
The conclusion of the book was also disappointing. In trying to recommend how America should adapt to the challenges and opportunities of India and China's rise she starts by writing off beleiving in the free market with a single sentence, that such a belief is literally naive. And then that's it. She explains why protectionism will fail with a well argued and fully developed set of reasons, but which contrasts and highlights poignantly her deafening silence on why the free market is apparently naive all of the sudden. Her third way solution is nothing but shallow platitudes however, with such points as we need to foster innovation and "start" demanding improvements in our schools (as if the country hasn't been demanding that for decades now but with no real progress and few ideas on how to do this that are politically acceptable to the teachers unions and other entrenched interests). It's also contradictory at points, as she talks about the need to reduce government debt and how American schools are failing despite having nearly the highest per capita funding relative to other countries at certain points, and then calling for significant expansion of entitlement and welfare programs, increased R&D funding, and the need for even more school funding at others.
As a personal suggestion to make America more competitive I would limit federal loans or grants for higher education to the engineering, science, math, medicine, and business fields (allowing GI bill recipients to still major in whatever they want in thanks to their service to the country).
All in all a decent but mediocre book, and thus mildly recommended, but on a very important issue which we all will need to address.
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Summary of The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us
"A comprehensive primer on the development of these Asian tigers."?Noam Lupu, San Francisco Chronicle
The Elephant and the Dragon is the essential guide to understanding how India and China are reshaping our world. With labor now unbound from geographic borders, we're seeing startling shifts in how?and where?nearly everything we buy is made. In a compelling mix of history and on-the-ground reporting, veteran journalist Robyn Meredith untangles the complex web of business and politics, as well as environmental and cultural issues that entwine India, China, and the West. She also outlines how Americans?business leaders, workers, politicians, even parents?can understand the vast changes coming and thrive in this new age.Economics Books
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