The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World
by Paul Roberts
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Book Summary Information
Author: Paul RobertsEdition: Paperback
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2005-04-05
ISBN: 0618562117
Number of pages: 416
Publisher: Mariner Books
Book Reviews of The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World
Book Review: Still an excellent primer on the economics of hydrocarbons and alternatives
Summary: 5 Stars
This book was published about four years ago, and it is interesting to compare some of its future projections with the current reality. The worse case scenario envisioned in the last chapter has oil going to $50 a barrel, a far cry from the habitual $100 or more for a barrel now, not to mention a high of almost $150. The United States has arrived at the point of sending on the order of 700 billion dollars a year overseas to mostly unstable governments. Yet, despite what in the context of this book would be a horrifying emergency situation, the winds of change have been very slow to make much of a difference. The entrenched oil interests, which the author does not underestimate, have kicked into gear; the Bush Administration has battened down the hatches and basically all they have to say is "drill! drill! drill!". Oil industry influence continues to do its work putting the breaks on renewables: tax credits have not been extended by Congress.
A case made here is that almost all of the easy oil has been exploited. Oil is only produced in Nature under special circumstances. Organic material has to be buried and then cooked in a narrow temperature range (100-135 degrees C). Then, it has to to be confined by rock formations so that it does not leak away into nothing. Worldwide, there is estimated to be 600 geological systems where oil can be extracted for commercial uses. Of that, about 400 have been explored and the remaining lie in hard-to-reach areas such as the Arctic and continental shelves. OPEC has clearly emerged the winner in the battle for easy oil, and has left the big oil companies and most of the non-OPEC world desperately scrambling to find new supplies. The likelihood that enough oil can be extracted from costly out-of-the-way places to compete with the power that OPEC can exert in the marketplace is not great, to say the least. In other words, drilling in costly, remote places will not make a dent anytime soon in the 700 billion dollars that the U.S. pays every year for its oil import bill.
Time is not on our side and the subject is much larger than just finding oil and dealing with OPEC. It concerns not only the use of oil but the use of all hydrocarbons. Just how much carbon dioxide can the atmosphere tolerate before serious disruptions occur to life on planet earth? The author cites experts who maintain that 550ppm might be a tipping point and that we are speeding toward that state. Of particular concern is the developing world - China and India - and the breakneck pace in which dirty fuels, namely coal, are being burned in order to grow emerging economies. The author asserts that the developing world will never take a leadership role in developing alternative energies. They cannot afford to invest except in the quickest and dirtiest. The rich countries, particularly the United States, will have to take the lead.
The author reviews the positives and negatives of alternative energy: hydrogen, wind and solar. Wind and solar offer growth opportunities in the near term, but are problematic as dependable sources because of their intermittency. Hydrogen may work as a substitute for oil sometime in the future but not in the near future. A very important factor in reducing hydrocarbon use is efficiency and conservation. In the 1980s energy efficiency was a significant factor in quelling OPEC's power to raise prices, but energy efficiency was a victim of its own success and Ronald Reagan moved to shutdown such efforts because of the free market meddling.
The big question concerns the role of government - particularly the United States and the rich countries - in instituting a price on carbon and encouraging the development of alternative fuels and "bridging" solutions. Will the world act proactively with a plan to move away from hydrocarbons or will it only react after disasters? If free market supply siders have their way and carbon is never recognized as having an economic cost, there will not be an economic incentive not to use cheap hydrocarbons; and if government does not step in and aid research and development for alternatives, it's less likely that in the near future the private sector will find enough economic incentives to make energy breakthroughs. Then, China and India will have no alternative but to continue to burn dirty fossil fuels.
In enshrining the free markets and the economics of supply, the U.S. will most likely be involved in more overseas conflicts and wars, particularly in the Middle East. Despite the way politicians downplay the matter, the two wars the U.S. has fought in Iraq have both been about opening up the supply of oil. If oil continues to be the life blood of the economy, then the forces that protect that oil will become more militant in protecting that crucial supply especially from the Middle East. If the Saudi royal family loses control to fundamentalists, the stage will be set for another war.
Summary of The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World
A frank and balanced investigation of the economics and politics of oil?and a forward-looking assessment of a world without it.
Within thirty years, even by conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is readily available to us. Already, the costly side effects of dependence on fossil fuel are taking their toll. Even as oil-related conflict threatens entire nations, individual consumers are suffering from higher prices at the gas pump, rising health problems, and the grim prospect of long-term environmental damage. In The End of Oil, Paul Roberts offers a brisk and timely wake-up call and considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives such as wind power, hybrid cars, and hydrogen, making this essential reading for anyone looking to understand and react to the energy crisis at hand.
The End of Oil is a "geologic cautionary tale for a complacent world accustomed to reliable infusions of cheap energy." The book centers around one irrefutable fact: the global supply of oil is being depleted at an alarming rate. Precisely how much accessible (not to mention theoretical) oil remains is debatable, but even conservative estimates mark the peak of production in decades rather than centuries. Which energy sources will replace oil, who will control them, and how disruptive to the current world order the transition from one system to the next will be are just a few of the big questions that Paul Roberts attempts to answer in this timely book.
As Roberts makes abundantly clear, the major oil players in the world wield their enormous economic and political power in order to maintain the status quo. Of course, they get plenty of help from the tens of millions of consumers, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, who guzzle oil as if there is an unlimited supply. And this demand shows no sign of abating--nearly half of the world's population lives without the benefits of fossil fuels and they desperately want to be among the haves. In countries such as China and India, where energy systems are already breaking down, Roberts discusses how they are looking to oil to fuel their race for development, in many cases ignoring environmental considerations altogether.
Though there is much to be pessimistic about, Roberts does uncover some positive developments, such as the race for alternative energy sources, notably hydrogen fuel cells, which could help to ease us off of our oil dependence before a full-blown energy crisis occurs. No one book could cover every aspect of what Roberts calls "arguably the most serious crisis ever to face industrial society," but The End of Oil is a remarkably informative and balanced introduction to this pressing subject. --Shawn Carkonen
Economics Books
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