The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm

The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm
by Robert F. Bruner, Sean D. Carr

The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm
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Book Summary Information

Author: Robert F. Bruner, Sean D. Carr
Edition: Paperback
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2009-04-27
ISBN: 0470452587
Number of pages: 296
Publisher: Wiley

Book Reviews of The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm

Book Review: A Panic of One's Own?
Summary: 5 Stars

Tolstoy's comment about happy and unhappy families has its counterpart in investment: all euphoric investors are euphoric for the same reasons, but all panic-stricken investors are panic-stricken for reasons unique to them. Challenging the notion that each episode of market panic is unique is one of the two central objectives of this remarkably informative book on the panic of 1907. The other objective is to avoid providing an account of the panic that is overly general. All too often, Bruner and Carr maintain, the explanation of a financial crisis is either too generic or too specific. Hence, their aim is to provide an account that is "neither too idiosyncratic nor too simplistic."

The result is the identification of seven inter-related "element" or "factors" that surface during crisis periods. Bruner and Carr claim these factors converged in 1907 and reappeared 100 years later. They are: buoyant growth, complexity, inadequate safety buffers, adverse leadership, real economic shock, undue fear and/or greed and failure of collective action.

Perhaps invariably this book is more hypothesis than proof. More work will be required to establish the usefulness of their framework. They have, however, decisively brought to life the panic of 1907 and, in a separate chapter, shown the relevance of 1907 to our own real estate induced panic. Their description of the panic and the response of market participants makes for both gripping and, considering how little has changed, sobering reading. With respect to the latter, what strikes the reader is how little has changed a century after Otto Heinze inadvertently struck the match that started the fire by attempting to "corner" shares in the United Copper company.

What I find disconcerting in books that attempt to explain a financial crisis is the scant attention paid to the question of how to prevent or more realistically prepare for the next one. On this point, however, Bruner and Carr are instructive. Their emphasis on the importance of collective action offers a clue going forward. Nothing struck me more in this book than the pivotal role of J. Pierpont Morgan. Morgan, already in his late sixties at the time of the panic, worked tirelessly to contain the panic by cajoling and uniting the otherwise independent players in New York's financial community. That his intervention may not have been entirely selfless is beside the point when one considers his impact. No single "factor" did as much to limit the duration and depth of the market's decline as the active involvement of Morgan. What's the lesson? This need for collective action in the financial community certainly surfaced during the demise of Long-Term Capital Management. It is in play in this crisis. All of which prompts the question: Should the Fed or Treasury periodically identify key players and engage in "war games" or otherwise prepare them for the next time they are called upon to act collectively?

Summary of The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm

"Before reading The Panic of 1907, the year 1907 seemed like a long time ago and a different world. The authors, however, bring this story alive in a fast-moving book, and the reader sees how events of that time are very relevant for today's financial world. In spite of all of our advances, including a stronger monetary system and modern tools for managing risk, Bruner and Carr help us understand that we are not immune to a future crisis."
?Dwight B. Crane, Baker Foundation Professor, Harvard Business School

"Bruner and Carr provide a thorough, masterly, and highly readable account of the 1907 crisis and its management by the great private banker J. P. Morgan. Congress heeded the lessons of 1907, launching the Federal Reserve System in 1913 to prevent banking panics and foster financial stability. We still have financial problems. But because of 1907 and Morgan, a century later we have a respected central bank as well as greater confidence in our money and our banks than our great-grandparents had in theirs."
?Richard Sylla, Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets, and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University

"A fascinating portrayal of the events and personalities of the crisis and panic of 1907. Lessons learned and parallels to the present have great relevance. Crises and panics are as much a part of our future as our past."
?John Strangfeld, Vice Chairman, Prudential Financial

"Who would have thought that a hundred years after the Panic of 1907 so much remained to be written about it? Bruner and Carr break significant new ground because they are willing to do the heavy lifting of combing through massive archival material to identify and weave together important facts. Their book will be of interest not only to banking theorists and financial historians, but also to business school and economics students, for its rare ability to teach so clearly why and how a panic unfolds."
?Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions, Columbia University, Graduate School of Business

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